In areas like Wakiso, which has only three NRM MPs, i think the most endangered is Robert Kasule Ssebunye in Kyadondo. i doubt if he will come back. However, given the fact that DP has the leading candidate against Kasule in Regina Bakitte and it is not part of the IPC, the IPC might come in to spoil DP`s advantage here. like they did during the byelections. That is the only way Kasule may survive.
The other NRM candidate Vice-President Gilbert Bukenya. He is one of the most active MPs in the constituency any where in Uganda because he acts practically. He has been all over with his farming implements including 30 tractors the other other week. Almost every body in the constituency knows about growing rice and vegetables and because of him, many are practicing irrigation. I bet he will survive confortably.
The other is the district woman MP Rosemary Sseninde. Like Bukenya, she is very active with her people, she is also active in parliament too as Chairperson of the Social services Committee. She will survive also.
Surprisingly, the biggest casualities in Wakiso will come from the opposition. Njuba is not coming back, but the seat is being looked at by Ibrahim Ssemujju as his for the taking. In Nakawuki`s constituency, Medard Lubega is on the look out, in Kikungwe`s constituency, NRM has former national footballer Frank Kyazze, but i think Kikungwe will take it again, but after a stiff battle. I also bet that Joseph Balikudembe will come back too.
The other area were NRM candidates may fall is Masaka. However, by the time of the voting, Masake will have three other districts. experience shows that residents of new districts tend to vote for the government-perhaps in appreciation. Balintuma Nsambu is being singled out especially, for comments he made last year. However, he is a hard nut to drive because like Bukenya, he is very practical in the constituency. His area might have the largest concentration of computers in a rural setting, thanks to him. the Likes of former boxer Justin Jjuko (FDC) and former sports journalist chris Mubiru (DP) may have no chance against Nsambu.
In the other constuencies, NRM may retain Kalungu East and West, Bukomansimbi too, were Hajji Kisiki Lubyayi is still very strong. In Masaka Municipality, NRM might jump in the fray too, if Kawanga (DP) Mathis Mpugga (Mengo) and Susan Nakawuki (FDC) decide to stand.
Outside those two districts, the other area were NRM candidates may be defeated is Mukono. However, already Mukono nroth is under Nambooze and she will return, Buikwe has Dr Lulume Bayiga who may not return, Mukwaya is not standing again in Mukono South and i here former district chairman Damulira Kyeyune may take the seat for NRM.
Overall, outside Wakiso, Masaka and Mukono, there are no visible signs that the opposition has personalities who can defeat the NRM candidates. And i mean in Nakaseke, Luwero, Nakasongola, Kayunga, ssembabule, Lyantonde, Kiboga, Mubende, Mityana, Gomba, Mpigi and Kyankwanzi.
I doubt if the opposition will increase their stakes in the house for mainly two reasons. One, most of the new big oposition personalities are competing against fellow opposition incumberts. This means that even if they win, the numbers will not change. I have not seen any serious new opposition candidate in many of the rural areas. Some people have been posing the question about new opposition personalities worthy mentioning in rural areas-other than Masaka, Mukono and Wakiso and i find none.
Two, so many new districts and constituencies have been created in rural areas. You do not expect an opposition candidate to win in Gomba, Kyankwanzi, Nakasongola, Bukomansimbi, Sheema, Rubirizi, Ruhinda, Nakaseke etc.
Even in the north and Lango, NRM has identified fairly strong new faces to take on the current opposition MPs. I bet that NRM will further increase their numbers in the house.
No body is creating confusion, but for the last few months, Mengo officials have categorically stated that they will put up candidates. There are also some who are categorised as NRM/Mengo.